The Academy Awards telecast has radically changed from year to year, from style and content to format and presentation. The biggest change this year was to allow 10 nominees for Best Picture -- aside from the standard five -- in an obvious bid for ratings, but also to allow films that might not get a nomination otherwise to have the spotlight. Make no mistake, it's mostly for the ratings.
Remember last year when The Dark Knight was widely considered a lock for at least a Best Picture nomination and didn't get it? So did the Academy; Heath Ledger's nomination was probably the biggest reason there was a rise in viewership after 2008's lowest-rated year ever. Now imagine what would've happened if Dark Knight HAD been nominated.
If anyone has followed the Oscars for longer than five years then they know that the show is a huge tug-of-war between artistry and popular opinion. Artistic (and more deserving) films have been getting the lion's share of Best Picture nominations lately and this is probably what has lead to the decline in viewership. Popular opinion usually factors in when Academy members are unable to see EVERY movie nominated and rely on advertising, word-of-mouth and the opinions of their peers to cast their vote.
It is this exact battle between art and popularity that usually cloud a lot of Oscar predictions. Ask a family member who hasn't seen a movie in eight months and they'll tell you that Avatar will TOTALLY win because, well, it made a billion dollars, riiiggghhht?!?! This is essentially how the Academy works and it can get a little frustrating when something that's largely considered Good wins over something considered Amazing. But that's life.
In order to recreate this eternal struggle (and to help illustrate what the 5,000+ members of the Academy are usually thinking) Alex Cronk-Young and I will be going over who we believe will be winning this year's main categories in the feature below. As these are just our guesses (some more educated than others) please do not take this as an excuse to run out and place bets with your local bookie.
This will just be a simple look at who's nominated, who will probably win and who will be stuck in their seat, straining a fake smile for five minutes, while someone else gets the award. If you're curious on the non-major awards, they're at the bottom. I fought to get the Original and Adapted Screenplays in the top but Alex is a rat who thinks the written word is a dead art. THAT PHILISTINE!
On with the show!