Oscar Predictions Battle

The Academy Awards telecast has radically changed from year to year, from style and content to format and presentation. The biggest change this year was to allow 10 nominees for Best Picture -- aside from the standard five -- in an obvious bid for ratings, but also to allow films that might not get a nomination otherwise to have the spotlight. Make no mistake, it's mostly for the ratings.

Remember last year when The Dark Knight was widely considered a lock for at least a Best Picture nomination and didn't get it? So did the Academy; Heath Ledger's nomination was probably the biggest reason there was a rise in viewership after 2008's lowest-rated year ever. Now imagine what would've happened if Dark Knight HAD been nominated.

If anyone has followed the Oscars for longer than five years then they know that the show is a huge tug-of-war between artistry and popular opinion. Artistic (and more deserving) films have been getting the lion's share of Best Picture nominations lately and this is probably what has lead to the decline in viewership. Popular opinion usually factors in when Academy members are unable to see EVERY movie nominated and rely on advertising, word-of-mouth and the opinions of their peers to cast their vote.

It is this exact battle between art and popularity that usually cloud a lot of Oscar predictions. Ask a family member who hasn't seen a movie in eight months and they'll tell you that Avatar will TOTALLY win because, well, it made a billion dollars, riiiggghhht?!?! This is essentially how the Academy works and it can get a little frustrating when something that's largely considered Good wins over something considered Amazing. But that's life.

In order to recreate this eternal struggle (and to help illustrate what the 5,000+ members of the Academy are usually thinking) Alex Cronk-Young and I will be going over who we believe will be winning this year's main categories in the feature below. As these are just our guesses (some more educated than others) please do not take this as an excuse to run out and place bets with your local bookie.

This will just be a simple look at who's nominated, who will probably win and who will be stuck in their seat, straining a fake smile for five minutes, while someone else gets the award. If you're curious on the non-major awards, they're at the bottom. I fought to get the Original and Adapted Screenplays in the top but Alex is a rat who thinks the written word is a dead art. THAT PHILISTINE!

On with the show!


Best Animated Feature

Nominees: Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, The Secret of Kells, Up

Alex: Here we have the very first challenging pick in this category. Normally I would go right for the Pixar movie as there seems to be a precedent for them winning this, but they threw them into Best Picture as well this year. However, having 10 nominees for Best Picture is obviously a shameful ploy to get better ratings, and I seriously doubt any of the blockbusters up there will win it. And I doubt even more that Pixar will take it. So I think they'll throw them this bone again.

My pick: Up

Tom: I have to say, I'm not too happy to see Up in both Best Picture and Best Animated Picture categories. Pixar has picked up this award every year they were nominated, except when Monsters, Inc. lost against Shrek, and it just doesn't feel fair. I have my heart set on Fantastic Mr. Fox but since this is predictions and not wishes, I have to agree. It's a shame that this will probably be voted for out of name-recognition and not actual viewing experience.

My pick: Up

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Penelope Cruz (Nine), Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart), Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air), Mo'Nique (Precious)

Alex: I have no idea for this one. I want to say Anna Kendrick just because I remember her getting a lot of praise on podcasts, but something tells me Precious is going to sweep a lot of these awards. Especially if they don't give it Best Picture. So I guess I'm going to go with Mo'Nique. Wow, does she always write her name exactly like that? It would annoy me to always write the apostrophe and the capitals. So complicated.

My pick: Mo'Nique

Tom: Part of me is really starting to hate that we're doing predictions and not a "Who should win/Who will win" kind of thing. Bummer. I would totally go for Anna Kendrick out of my love for Up In the Air but I'm not really sure she deserves it. I mean, she plays a cocksure young corporate ladder-climber who gets a fat reality check for life when she goes on a road trip with George Clooney. She cries, does a bit of growing up and that's about it. Mo'Nique is the front runner here (abusive, self-loathing inner-city mother who is drowning in shame and rage) but I would love to see Vera Farmiga walk up those steps in her place.

My pick: Mo'Nique

Best Actress

Nominees: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Carey Mulligan (An Eduction), Gabourey Sidibe (Precious), Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)

Alex: Gabourey Sidibe. I mean, in my heart of hearts I want Sandra Bullock to win it *sarcasm*, but I don't think the Academy really understands how amazing she is at playing a borderline racist who helps the poor minority kid become a better person. *sigh*

My pick: Gabourey Sidibe

Tom: Hoo boy. This is one I'm not too proud about. If I say Gabby Sidibe then I'm going with my gut on who deserved it more. But Sandra Bullock is getting the typical last-minute push by the awards machine. How else does one explain The Blind Side being nominated for Best Picture and Sandra winning the Golden Globe? Granted, the Golden Globes are chosen by the Hollywood Foreign Press and not a group of her peers, but it's still a valid award that helps predict a winner. More than anything, the Academy feeds on hype and word-of-mouth.

My pick: Sandra Bullock

Alex: Haha, you make a valid point that is much more educated then mine. I was just joking about all of my Sandra Bullock stuff.

Tom: She played a much harder role in Crash and you didn't see her get nominated for that, right? Right. Maybe because she was playing "upper-class RACIST" as opposed to "upper-class SAINT". Also, consider this: she was acting with, like, 12 other people hogging the spotlight in Crash and she's front and center in Blind Side. Can't be luck.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Matt Damon (Invictus), Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), Christopher Plummer (The Last Station), Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones), Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)

Alex: Sure, I've only seen one of these movies, but I still say Christoph Waltz deserves it hands down. I don't think I could go with anyone else.

My pick: Christoph Waltz

Tom: This is too easy. It's always been Christoph's award to lose. He had the hype and support the moment he came on screen and he hasn't lost any steam since then. I'd like for anyone who watched Inglourious Basterds (and enjoyed it; none of those namby-pampy naysayers who hate when DIALOGUE gets in the way of NAZI TORTURE) to be honest. The man spoke German, French, Italian and English. He was almost more likeable than the heroes. He kills people with glee and then laughs at terrible jokes. In my book we call that A WINNER.

My pick: Christoph Waltz

Alex: That's a Bingo!

Tom: I see what you did there. Clever. By the way, I should've added that anyone who can smoke a more ridiculous pipe than the one Sherlock Holmes (never) used and still comes off as menacing is really deserving of getting a golden boy. And I REALLY hope he does his acceptance speech in all four languages.

Best Actor

Nominees: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), George Clooney (Up in the Air), Colin Firth (A Single Man), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)

Alex: Jeez, this is a tough one. I'm kind of leaning toward Colin Firth, because when a straight man plays a gay man, the academy falls all over themselves to give him an Oscar. Still, Morgan Freeman playing Nelson Mandela? How could you vote against that? I think Clooney and Jeremy Renner have pretty good chances as well. Hmmm, I guess I'll go with Morgan Freeman, but this was a REALLY hard choice.

My pick: Morgan Freeman

Tom: Sadly, you're wrong. While having Morgan Freeman win for playing a pretty good version of Nelson Mandela (who said a few years back that he would choose Morgan to play him in a movie) SOUNDS like the logical choice, it won't happen. Wanna know why? Because it's a "prestige" role that didn't feel groundbreaking. Because barely anyone saw the movie but it got nominated anyway.

Y'know what that means? Everyone voted for the same reason you chose him; because it SOUNDED right. Voting for the nomination and voting for the winner are vastly different. The Academy will actually go for the REAL winner which just so happens to be a guy that I respect a lot. Not because he grew up 15 miles from my town but because he's awesome and this was his breakout performance.

My pick: Jeremy Renner

Tom: In the interest of full disclosure I should state that I changed my mind. I know that Jeff Bridges will probably win this (look at Sandra Bullock's example) but I just can't in good conscience write his name down. It pains me to think that Jeremy won't get this so I'm making myself feel better by giving it to him here. Shut up, all of you!

Best Director

Nominees: James Cameron (Avatar), Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds), Lee Daniels (Precious), Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)

Alex: Well, I've pretty much got to vote on this depending on who I think will win Best Picture, because it is very rare that the two categories differ. The Academy type of pick would be Precious, but I've already hinged all of my other votes on that not winning, and I sort of think they are going to try for a more "mainstream" pick this year. So I'll pick one of those, the one I think deserves it most.

My pick: Quentin Tarantino

Tom: This is the hardest category for me to put down. The eternal struggle of "art" versus "technical achievement" is usually right here and in Best Picture. I know this is supposed to be a prediction and not wishful thinking. Screw it. While James Cameron's achievement may have been to pour over $250 million and 15 years into Avatar (and it shows) Kathryn Bigelow went and made something MORE stunning but with emotional realism, tense drama and honest humanity. And she did it with less than a TENTH of the budget. BOOM, SUCKAS!

My pick: Kathryn Bigelow

Best Picture

Nominees: Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air

Alex: Sticking to the idea that Best Director will also win Best Picture, I'm picking Inglourious Basterds. While QT may be the biggest snotball in the world, he still made one hell of a movie. I sure hope it wins.

My pick: Inglourious Basterds

Tom: I can't really go with Avatar on this. Yes, it made a billion bucks. Yes, it advanced the art of computer graphics. But I think deep, down inside a lot of Academy members are going to pull through with the real winner of last year.

My pick: The Hurt Locker



The Rest

Art Direction

Alex: Avatar
Tom: Avatar

Cinematography

Alex: Avatar
Tom: Inglourious Basterds. You can't be serious with that. Avatar? 70% of the movie is CG!
Alex: Stupider things have happened. And all those CG blue people had real-life humans doing weird motion capture shit.

Costume Design

Alex: Nine
Tom: The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus

Documentary (Feature)

Alex: The Cove
Tom: The Cove

Documentary (Short Subject)

Alex: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Tom: Rabbit à la Berlin

Film Editing

Alex: Inglourious Basterds
Tom: The Hurt Locker

Foreign Language Film

Alex: A Prophet
Tom: The White Ribbon

Makeup

Alex: The Young Victoria
Tom: Star Trek. I'm confused on why two movies with seemingly NO makeup achievement at all (unless you count making someone look old and stately is terribly difficult) got nominated against something with mo'fuggin ALIENS in it.

Music (Original Score)

Alex: Avatar
Tom: Fantastic Mr. Fox

Music (Original Song)

Alex: "Down in New Orleans" (Princess and the Frog). How can you vote against Randy Newman? Heartless bastard. That man deserves the world on a platter.
Tom: "The Weary Kind" (Crazy Heart). Randy Newman sounds like Randy Newman sounds like Randy...zzzzzzzzz... The man has NEVER CHANGED HIS SOUND. Just because he's a-MAZing doesn't mean he should get it. Crazy Heart has Country songs that are good (an achievement in and of itself) and are written and played with skill. Princess Froggybottom has wannabe-Cajun songs that are 2 minutes long. SUCK IT, RANDY!

Short Film (Animated)

Alex: French Roast
Tom: Wallace and Gromit in 'A Matter of Loaf and Death'

Short Film (Live Action)

Alex: Miracle Fish
Tom: The Door

Sound Editing

Alex: The Hurt Locker
Tom: Avatar. (I hate that you're choosing what I want to win and not what I HOPE will win)

Sound Mixing

Alex: The Hurt Locker
Tom: Avatar. (I feel like a damn traitor. I loved Hurt Locker a hundred times more than this technical MARVEL, but we're predicting here. And I'm using my Vegas-style percentages and intuition.)

Visual Effects

Alex: Avatar
Tom: Avatar

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Alex: Precious
Tom: Up In the Air

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Alex: Inglourious Basterds
Tom: The Hurt Locker